CaliToday (01/12/2025): Brussels – In a seismic shift of military doctrine, NATO is signaling that it may no longer wait to be attacked before striking back. Facing a relentless campaign of Russian "hybrid warfare" ranging from crippling cyberattacks to sabotage of critical infrastructure the Alliance is considering moving from a reactive posture to a proactive, and potentially preemptive, defense.
The End of "Passive Defense"
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, has brought a controversial but increasingly necessary conversation to the forefront: the option of preemptive strikes.
Speaking on the escalation of hostilities, Dragone indicated that the Alliance could study stronger measures to neutralize threats before they materialize. This represents a fundamental departure from NATO's traditional defensive stance.
The Logic: Waiting for a sabotage team to cut an undersea cable or for a hacker to shut down a power grid is too late. The damage is already done.
The Methods: Dragone highlighted that cyber operations are the most feasible immediate option for preemptive action. However, he admitted that kinetic responses such as physical strikes against staging grounds or intercepting Russian aircraft/UAVs violating airspace carry complex legal and diplomatic weights.
"This goes far beyond NATO's traditional way of thinking, but it is a calculation we must make because Russia is becoming increasingly bold." — Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone
The Eastern Flank: "Make Them Pay"
The push for a harder line is being driven by NATO’s Eastern flank members the Baltic states and Poland—who argue that the current strategy of "managing consequences" only emboldens Moscow.
A Baltic diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned: "If NATO remains passive, Russia will continue to test our limits. Unless they face actual loss and cost for these hybrid attacks, the damage will only grow."
Defense in Action: "Baltic Sentry"
While debating offense, NATO has proven its defensive measures can bite. The Alliance points to the success of operation "Baltic Sentry," a focused effort to protect undersea infrastructure.
Following a spate of mysterious cable severances in 2023–2024 (suspected to be the work of Russian "research" vessels), this operation successfully deterred further sabotage attempts, proving that visible strength yields results.
Europe Mobilizes for a Long Conflict
Beyond rhetoric, major European powers are making tangible moves to prepare for a potential high-intensity conflict, possibly as early as 2030.
1. France: The Return of Conscription In a historic reversal, France is reinstating voluntary military conscription after nearly 30 years. The move is a direct acknowledgment that professional armies may need mass mobilization reserves if Russia pushes toward a full-scale confrontation with NATO.
2. Sweden: Long-Range Deterrence Newly acceded NATO member Sweden is reviewing the acquisition of long-range missiles capable of striking targets 2,000 km away.
The Strategy: This would allow Sweden to strike deep into Russian territory.
The Trigger: Stockholm emphasizes these weapons would only be used if Russia attacks NATO first, triggering Article 5.
Commentary: Russia is Playing with Fire
Opinion The Kremlin appears to be engaged in a high-stakes gamble. By utilizing hybrid warfare tactics—operating in the "gray zone" between peace and total war Moscow believes it can destabilize the West without triggering a full military response. They believe they control the temperature of the conflict.
They are wrong.
Russia is pushing NATO to its breaking point. As European capitals realize that restraint is being met with aggression, the era of "passive defense" is ending. By forcing NATO to discuss preemptive strikes, Vladimir Putin has achieved the exact opposite of his strategic goals: he has awakened a sleeping giant that is now contemplating how to hit back first.
If Russia continues this dangerous game of "low-risk calculation," they may soon find that the fire they lit is no longer under their control and the backlash will be far more severe than a diplomatic protest.