CaliToday (25/12/2025): On the surface, the bond between Moscow and Beijing has never seemed stronger. During President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in September 2025, the rhetoric reached a fever pitch. Calling President Xi Jinping a "dear friend," Putin hailed their bilateral ties as being at an "all-time high." With Western sanctions cutting Russia off from traditional markets, China has stepped in as a vital lifeline, driving bilateral trade to a staggering $245 billion in 2024. However, beneath the smiles and the champagne toasts lies a cold, transactional reality that suggests Russia may be trading its long-term sovereignty for short-term survival.
The Trojan Horse of Chinese Imports
While the influx of Chinese goods has kept Russian shelves full, it is simultaneously cannibalizing Russia's domestic industries. The automotive sector, once a point of national pride, is currently in a "death spiral."
AvtoVAZ, the maker of the iconic Lada, has been forced to slash production by nearly half, implementing a bleak four-day workweek to stay afloat.
Kamaz, Russia’s heavy-truck giant, has fared no better, seeing demand crater by 60% as cheaper, tech-heavy Chinese alternatives flood the market.
Moscow has attempted to fight back by hiking import fees and banning certain Chinese truck models, but these measures feel like "too little, too late." Russia is finding that its "best friend" is also its most ruthless competitor, turning the Russian market into a dumping ground for Chinese overcapacity.
A One-Sided Trade War
The asymmetry extends far beyond car dealerships. Despite the "no-limits" partnership, Beijing has shown a cold-blooded willingness to squeeze Moscow where it hurts:
Energy Exploitation: China has leveraged its position as Russia's sole major buyer to demand "friendship discounts" on oil and gas, paying prices far below global market rates.
Selective Protectionism: While Russia begs for market access, China re-imposed tariffs on Russian coal in early 2024 and continues to block key agricultural exports like wheat and barley, citing "sanitary concerns" a classic Beijing tactic for economic leverage.
The Investment Drought: Perhaps most telling is the collapse of "real" investment. Annual Chinese FDI into Russia has withered from a modest $1.2 billion to a meager $400 million. High-tech cooperation is virtually non-existent, leaving Russia starved of the chips and precision tools it desperately needs to modernize.
Broken Promises and Ghost Projects
The graveyard of failed Russia-China mega-projects is growing. The CR929 wide-body jet, once intended to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly, has seen Russia sidelined. The Moscow–Kazan high-speed railway and the Tianjin refinery remain frozen in bureaucratic limbo.
Even the celebrated "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline remains a symbol of Russian desperation. While Gazprom was quick to announce a deal following the September 2025 summit, Beijing has remained conspicuously silent, refusing to commit to the volumes or prices Russia needs to make the project viable. As former Russian official Vladimir Milov aptly noted: "China is using Russia because they know Russia has nowhere else to go."
Conclusion: The High Price of "Friendship"
The irony of the current Kremlin strategy is stark. In its attempt to "pivot to the East" to escape Western influence, Russia has arguably traded a seat at the table in Europe for a position as China’s "junior partner" or worse, its resource colony.
On paper, the alliance is a fortress. In reality, it is a lopsided arrangement where China reaps the strategic rewards while Russian industry hollows out. As the saying goes: with "friends" like these, Putin may soon find that he no longer needs enemies to see his superpower ambitions fade.