CaliToday (05/12/2025): Is the era of Western dominance officially over? According to Finnish President Alexander Stubb, we are standing on a precipice. In a seminal new piece titled "The West’s Final Chance," Stubb argues that the post-World War II order—built on the pillars of cooperation, international law, and shared democratic values—is not just cracking; it is actively breaking down.
As war returns to Europe and alliances fracture, Stubb issues a stark ultimatum: The West has a fleeting window of opportunity to reinvent the global system, or risk plunging the world into an era of chaos where "might makes right."
1. The Obituary of the Old World
Stubb’s diagnosis is brutal but necessary. The "rules-based international order" that maintained relative global peace for decades is disintegrating. The institutions designed to prevent conflict—the UN, the EU, the WTO—are suffering from a crisis of legitimacy. Paralyzed by bureaucracy and internal vetoes, they currently lack the authority to halt aggression or solve complex modern crises.
2. The Rise of the "Transactional" World
We are no longer living in a unipolar world led by the United States, nor a bipolar Cold War. We have entered a fragmented, multipolar reality.
The Global South Rises: "Swing states" and middle powers—from India and Brazil to Turkey and Saudi Arabia—are no longer content to follow Western directives.
Feeling Left Behind: These nations argue that the old system was rigged to serve Western interests while ignoring their development. As a result, they are forging their own paths, creating alternative alliances that bypass Washington and Brussels entirely.
3. The Internal Threat: A Divided West
Perhaps most alarmingly, Stubb points the finger inward. The West’s ability to respond to these external threats is being hamstrung by its own internal decay.
Polarization: Deep political divisions within Western democracies are making long-term strategic planning nearly impossible.
Inconsistency: When leadership changes result in drastic foreign policy U-turns, trust is eroded. If the West cannot govern itself effectively, it cannot hope to lead the world.
4. The Nightmare Scenario: "Might Makes Right"
What happens if the West fails to act? Stubb warns of a return to the "Law of the Jungle." In this scenario:
Aggression goes unpunished.
Borders become meaningless suggestions rather than sovereign lines.
Small nations pay the price: Countries like Ukraine face existential threats. If Russia is allowed to redraw maps by force, no small nation is safe.
5. The Solution: Reinvention, Not Restoration
Stubb argues that trying to simply "restore" the glory days of the 1990s is a fool’s errand. The world has changed too much. Instead, the solution lies in "Reformed Multilateralism."
Power Sharing: The West must be willing to give rising powers a seat at the table in decision-making processes.
Modernization: Global institutions must be overhauled to reflect the reality of 2025, not 1945.
Conclusion: A Race Against the Clock
The central theme of Stubb’s message is urgency. This is not a project for the next decade; it is a project for now. Without coordinated, decisive leadership to build a more inclusive and effective global architecture, authoritarian regimes will fill the vacuum.
As Stubb poignantly notes, this is not just about saving "The West"—it is about saving the concept of freedom, stability, and sovereignty for everyone.