CaliToday (31/12/2025): A specter is haunting the corridors of power in Tokyo: the return of an "America First" doctrine so potent that it may dissolve the post-war alliance system and birth a terrifying new reality a "G2" world order where Washington and Beijing carve up the globe, leaving allies like Japan out in the cold.
The Retreat from Global Stewardship Analysts are sounding the alarm over the implications of a new National Security Strategy (NSS) under President Donald Trump. The strategy signals a profound shift: a United States retreating from its status as the sole global superpower to focus inward on the Western Hemisphere. By deprioritizing its commitments in Europe and Asia, the U.S. appears ready to abdicate the moral and strategic "World Policeman" role meticulously built by generations of American presidents.
This isolationist pivot threatens to dismantle the foundations of NATO and the liberal international order, replacing collective security with transactional deal-making. For Japan, this is not just a policy shift; it is a nightmare scenario.
The "Japan Passing" Anxiety As China aggressively pursues hegemonic ambitions and tightens the noose around the Taiwan Strait, Japan’s security is entirely predicated on American deterrence. However, a Trump-led push for a "G2" arrangement—essentially a power-sharing agreement between the U.S. and China would leave Tokyo dangerously exposed.
The fear is that Washington, in its bid to isolate itself from foreign entanglements, might trade away the security of the Indo-Pacific for economic concessions from Beijing. This would leave Japan facing an emboldened China without its traditional shield.
Echoes of the "Nixon Shock" The current atmosphere in Nagatacho bears a chilling resemblance to the "Nixon Shock" of 1972, when the U.S. blindsided Japan by normalizing relations with China. However, the stakes today are higher. Unlike the Cold War era, where the U.S. maintained supremacy, a modern U.S. withdrawal would not just shock Japan it could unmoor it entirely.
A "Drifting Nation" Critics warn that Trump’s erratic nature and disdain for traditional alliances could force Japan into the status of a "drifting nation" unprotected, diplomatically sidelined, and forced to navigate a hostile region alone. If the U.S. chooses isolationism over leadership, effectively blessing a Chinese sphere of influence in Asia, the legacy of American ethical leadership will be shattered, and Japan will be the first casualty of the new order.