CaliToday (19/12/2025): The nightmare scenario for Taiwan is no longer just a confrontation with Beijing. In a chilling assessment presented to the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s top intelligence officials have publicly warned that if China moves to invade, Russia is unlikely to remain a bystander.
On December 17, Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB), outlined a grim forecast: Moscow is preparing to act as a "force multiplier" for the People's Liberation Army (PLA), providing critical rear-guard support that could tip the scales of a cross-strait conflict.
1. The "Shadow Partner" Strategy
According to Taipei's analysis, while Russian troops are unlikely to storm the beaches of Taiwan alongside Chinese marines, Moscow’s involvement would be deep and strategic. Tsai described a model of "indirect warfare" where Russia provides:
Logistical Backbone: Ensuring energy and food supplies to China to blunt the impact of international sanctions.
Lethal Aid: Supplying advanced weaponry, missile components, and military technology to replenish PLA stocks.
Cyber & Intelligence: Sharing satellite data and cyber-warfare capabilities to blind Taiwanese defenses.
"Moscow does not rule out helping China... instead of open combat, they will offer the logistical and technical lifeline Beijing needs to sustain a high-intensity war," the assessment noted.
2. Creating Chaos: The Distraction Front
The most dangerous aspect of this potential alliance is Russia’s ability to stretch US and allied forces thin.
Intelligence suggests Russia would open a "second front" of tension in the wider Indo-Pacific. By conducting aggressive naval patrols and military drills in sensitive choke points such as the Miyako Strait (a key gateway for Japan) and the broader Taiwan Strait Russia aims to:
Distract the US Navy: Forcing the US 7th Fleet to divide its attention between protecting Taiwan and monitoring aggressive Russian maneuvers.
Intimidate Japan: Preventing Tokyo from fully committing its Self-Defense Forces to aid Taiwan.
3. Coordinated Signals in the Sky
Defense Minister Wellington Koo backed the intelligence report with hard evidence from recent weeks. He pointed to the increasing frequency of joint Sino-Russian strategic bomber patrols as proof that the two military giants are no longer just "dating" they are operationally integrated.
"The recent joint air patrols and Beijing's harsh reaction to Japanese diplomacy show that their military signaling is coordinated," Koo stated. The message is designed to demonstrate that an attack on one is effectively a challenge to both.
4. A Global Conflict in the Making
Taiwan’s message to the world is stark: A Chinese invasion will not be an isolated regional skirmish.
If the "Dragon" (China) attacks, the "Bear" (Russia) will hold the door. This transforms a potential Taiwan contingency into a multi-front global crisis, forcing the United States, Japan, and other democracies to prepare for a scenario where they must confront two nuclear-armed superpowers simultaneously.