CaliToday (09/12/2025): The Moscow Times / The Economist / ISW Topic: War in Ukraine /Demographics
As the invasion of Ukraine approaches the end of its fourth year, a grim milestone has been reached in Moscow. New data released this week suggests that Russia has sacrificed approximately 1% of its entire pre-war male population to the conflict a staggering demographic blow that eclipses the human toll of modern American conflicts and rivals the intensity of World War II.
1. The Human Cost: A Generation Decimated
According to a report by The Moscow Times (citing The Economist), the Kremlin's "meat grinder" tactics have resulted in catastrophic personnel losses.
The 1% Figure: Based on the 2020-2021 census, which counted over 68 million males in Russia, the number of Russian soldiers killed may now exceed 680,000.
Workforce Impact: When narrowing the focus to able-bodied, working-age men, the death toll stands at approximately 430,000.
Total Casualties: Including the wounded, total Russian losses are estimated between 1 million and 1.35 million. To put this in perspective, these casualties now exceed the number of US soldiers killed or wounded during the entirety of World War II.
"We are witnessing the hollowing out of a demographic bracket," analysts note. "These are not just soldiers; they are the fathers, factory workers, and engineers that Russia needed for its future."
2. The Exchange Rate: Blood for Soil
Despite these horrific losses, the Russian military machine has struggled to translate manpower into significant territorial control. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides a sobering assessment of the battlefield reality in 2025.
2025 Gains: In the last 11 months, Russian forces captured 4,562 km² of Ukrainian territory. While this represents a 22% increase compared to the 3,734 km² seized in 2024, it remains a glacial pace relative to the cost.
The Big Picture: Over four years of full-scale war, Russia has managed to seize only an additional 1.45% of Ukraine's total landmass beyond what it held in 2014.
No Major Cities: Perhaps the most telling failure is that throughout this period, no major Ukrainian city has fallen. The fighting remains focused on smaller settlements like Pokrovsk (Donetsk region).
The Pokrovsk Standoff: Despite 18 months of intense combat, Pokrovsk Ukraine’s 73rd largest city with a pre-war population of just 61,000 remains contested and has not been fully captured.
3. The 2028 Projection: A War Without End?
The report highlights a massive disconnect between President Putin's political ambitions and his military's capabilities.
The Constitutional Gap: To fully occupy the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhya, and Kherson regionsterritories Putin has already "constitutionally" claimed as Russian the army needs to capture another 20,345 km².
The Timeline: At the current grueling pace of advance, The Economist projects it would take Russia until May 2028 another two and a half years to reach these administrative borders.
Currently, Russia controls approximately 120,000 km² (about 20% of Ukraine), but the price for the final few percent may break the Russian army before it breaks the Ukrainian lines.
4. Current Situation (December 9, 2025)
The bleeding continues unabated. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russian total losses will soon surpass 1.2 million.
Daily Attrition: In just the last 24 hours, another 1,200 Russian soldiers were reported killed or wounded.
Active Fronts: Heavy fighting continues in Kupyansk (Kharkiv front) and accelerated offensives are reported in Zaporizhya, yet the strategic stalemate largely holds.
Summary
The data paints a picture of a Pyrrhic victory in the making. Russia is trading its future its young men and its economy for slivers of scorched earth in the Donbas. With a casualty rate of over 1,000 men per day to capture minor settlements, the question is no longer if Russia can advance, but who will be left to inhabit the conquered lands.