With the government shutdown grinding into its second month, all eyes are on ObamaCare subsidies and President Trump as negotiators seek a deal that allows everyone to declare victory.
CALITODAY (03/11/2025): Washington is desperate for an exit ramp.
Voices in both parties acknowledge that Democrats and Republicans are searching for a deal that allows them to save face while ending a grueling government shutdown that is inflicting mounting pain on Americans nationwide.
The challenge lies in finding a political "sweet spot" that reopens the government while allowing both sides to credibly tell their respective bases that they won.
No clear solution is apparent, but as the shutdown enters its second month, lawmakers, strategists, and political experts suggest two factors are key to any agreement: President Trump and ObamaCare subsidies.
Enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits have become the central impasse. For weeks, both parties have dug into unmoving public positions. Republicans insist they will not negotiate an extension of the looming subsidies a core Democratic demand before Democrats help reopen the government. Democrats have retorted that they will not help reopen the government until Republicans agree to negotiate on healthcare.
For a month, neither side has budged, and party leaders publicly maintain they won't be the first to blink.
The "Delicate Dance" of De-escalation
The path out of the stalemate will require a delicate political dance, but experts say at least two options are being pursued that could avoid the appearance of surrender.
Option 1: The Trump Summit This scenario involves a direct commitment from President Trump who has been largely on the sidelines of the debate, having just returned from an extended trip to Asia.
In this proposal, Trump would commit to sitting down with Democratic lawmakers on a specific, future date to negotiate an ACA subsidy extension. In exchange, Democrats would agree to immediately reopen the government by supporting the "clean" GOP spending bill that has languished in the Senate for over four weeks.
"Everybody gets to claim victory," said one Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the negotiations.
"The Republicans will say, 'Good, they finally came to their senses.' And they'll be able to say, 'We never caved; we said we would negotiate if they opened the government,'" the source continued. "We'll say, 'We finally got his attention after he was in Asia, and he’s going to sit down. He’s bringing people to the table.'"
"As long as the president agrees," the strategist concluded, "I think that will be the face-saving way out."
The hang-up, however, is trust. Democratic leaders Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) say they simply do not trust Trump and the GOP to honor a future commitment on the ACA, a law Trump spent his first term trying to repeal. Just recently, Trump blasted the ACA as a "disaster" on Truth Social and demanded Democrats "do something" about rising health insurance costs.
Option 2: The "Commitment to Vote" A second potential off-ramp involves a Republican commitment to hold a firm up-or-down floor vote not just a negotiation on extending the ACA subsidies, in exchange for Democratic help ending the shutdown.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) floated this strategy last month, but Democrats balked, demanding a more concrete guarantee that GOP-demanded ACA reforms wouldn't gut patient protections.
Now, with pressure mounting, some are willing to revisit that approach as a condition for ending the shutdown—if the commitment to a vote applies to both chambers and has Trump's explicit backing.
"If the Republicans break their promise, the Democrats can just shut the government down again when the next budget deadline arrives," said former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).
Pressure Mounts as Polls Turn Against GOP
As the shutdown threatens to disrupt services for millions of low-income Americans in education, nutrition, and healthcare compounded by reports of cascading flight delays observers say both sides may have no choice but to inch toward a compromise.
"I think everyone implicitly understands we need a 'slight crisis,' and that it will be helpful to all," the Democratic strategist said. "That will be the exit ramp for everyone without taking credit or blame."
The expiring ACA subsidies are creating a political migraine for GOP leadership. Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) are caught between Republican moderates who want the subsidies extended—to prevent massive premium hikes next year ahead of the midterms and hard-line conservatives who want the tax credits to expire completely.
Democrats, meanwhile, see the shutdown as an opportunity to elevate the healthcare issue, ensuring it remains a central theme for the 2026 midterm elections. And they have reason to believe their message is landing.
An AP-NORC survey found about 6 in 10 Americans "extremely" or "very" concerned about healthcare costs rising in the next year. A separate Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll showed more Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown than Democrats.
"It’s clear the Trump administration is trying to make this as painful as possible," said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.). "This isn't about political wins and losses for us. This is about making sure people can afford their healthcare and that hungry people get fed, and that's what we're fighting for."
Adding to the political calculus, voters head to the polls on Tuesday for gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and the New York City mayoral race. While Democrats are favored, stronger-than-expected victories could embolden their shutdown strategy; narrow wins could give Republicans fresh attack lines.
Trump's "Nuclear Option" Wild Card
After weeks on the sidelines, Trump himself jumped into the fray on Thursday but not in the way many Republicans had hoped.
Hours after returning from his Asia tour, Trump called on Thune and Senate Republicans to eliminate the legislative filibuster the 60-vote threshold the Democratic minority is using to block the GOP's temporary spending bill.
"Time for Republicans to play the 'TRUMP CARD,' & use the so-called Nuclear Option Eliminate the Filibuster, and get it done NOW!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The proposal was immediately shot down by GOP leadership, including Speaker Johnson, who warned it would inevitably backfire when Democrats eventually regain control of the Senate.
"The filibuster has long been seen as an important safeguard," Johnson said. "If the shoe were on the other foot, I don't think we'd like that very much."