CaliToday (17/11/2025): The PayPal co-founder’s fund, Thiel Macro LLC, liquidated 537,000 NVDA shares once 40% of its portfolio in a move that has Wall Street questioning if the AI bubble has finally peaked.
Wall Street is processing a seismic move from one of Silicon Valley's most revered and contrarian investors. Peter Thiel the billionaire co-founder of PayPal, chairman of Palantir, and a man often dubbed the "tech oracle" has just "run for the exits" on the single hottest stock of the decade: Nvidia (NVDA).
In a stunning Q3 filing, Thiel Macro LLC, the venture capitalist's fund, revealed it had liquidated its entire position of 537,000 Nvidia shares.
This was not a minor re-allocation. The NVDA stake, valued in the hundreds of millions, previously accounted for a staggering 40% of the fund's public portfolio.
But the sell-off didn't stop there.
A Drastic Pivot from AI Hype
Thiel's move appears to be part of a much broader, defensive pivot. The fund's filings show a dramatic portfolio purge, with total reported assets plunging from $212 million down to just $74.4 million.
After selling off Nvidia—and also dumping his entire position in Vistra Energy Thiel’s fund now holds a hyper-concentrated portfolio of just three "Big Tech" names:
Tesla (TSLA): 39%
Microsoft (MSFT): 34%
Apple (AAPL): 27%
This shift is deeply unusual for a major tech investor. Thiel has effectively sold the "picks and shovels" of the AI gold rush (Nvidia's GPUs) and consolidated into the mega-cap companies using AI (Microsoft, Tesla) and the market's ultimate "safe haven" hardware (Apple).
Timing is Everything: Exiting at the Peak
What makes this move so jarring to the market is its timing. Thiel isn't selling into weakness; he is selling into unprecedented, euphoric strength.
This bombshell drops just as Nvidia is:
Smashing Revenue Records: The company continues to post historic, blowout earnings, dominating the data center and AI chip market.
A Multi-Trillion Dollar Titan: With a market capitalization that has soared past $2.5 trillion (and is challenging Apple and Microsoft for the world's most valuable company), Nvidia is the undisputed king of the market.
Fueling Global Euphoria: The entire stock market's narrative for the past two years has been built on the promise of generative AI, with Nvidia at its epicenter.
Amid this global frenzy, with Wall Street analysts forecasting a path to trillions in future revenue, Peter Thiel has done the unthinkable: he sold everything.
A Blaring Bubble Alarm
This action isn't just a trade; it's a thesis. For months, Thiel has been a vocal skeptic, warning that the current generative AI hype is dangerously inflated. He has publicly compared the current fervor to the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000.
By executing a portfolio turnover of 80% in a single quarter, Thiel is not just trimming his hedges. He is signaling a clear and present belief that the market has lost touch with reality and a painful correction is imminent.
For an investor of his stature one who built his fortune by identifying generation-defining trends (PayPal, Facebook, Palantir) to abandon the single most important trend of the decade is a clear "bubble alert."
Wall Street Divided: Panic Signal or Smart Pivot?
The market is now grappling with two conflicting interpretations of Thiel's exit:
The "Canary in the Coal Mine" (Bear Case): This view suggests that when a "smart money" insider like Thiel who chairs Palantir, an AI company himself—gets out, it’s a terrifying signal. It could shake the market's "grow-at-all-costs" faith in AI valuations and trigger a panic sell-off as others race to lock in profits. If it is a bubble, Thiel's exit could be the "pin" that bursts it.
The Strategic Re-allocation (Neutral Case): The other side argues this is simply a strategic move by one fund. Thiel may be freeing up capital for more lucrative private investments (his specialty) or simply believes the "easy money" in Nvidia has been made and the risk-to-reward ratio is no longer favorable.
Regardless of the motive, Wall Street is on high alert. The AI rally has been responsible for the vast majority of the market's gains. Even a small chain reaction of doubt could trigger a massive correction in Nvidia, the AI sector, and the broader market that depends on it.
The question every investor is now asking: Is Peter Thiel seeing a crash that no one else does, or did he just walk away from the biggest party on Wall Street right before midnight?
(Sources: Based on reports from TheStreet, Reuters, and public SEC filings.)