CaliToday (08/11/2025): He staked his legacy on rebuilding an empire. But 3.5 years after his catastrophic invasion, Russia is weaker, its military is degraded, and its former subjects are looking to anyone but Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has staked his entire political fortune on one goal: restoring the Russian empire. Unfortunately for him, the target nations the non-Russian former Soviet republics and the former East European satellite states are not cooperating.
Having tasted independence, they appear committed to retaining it.
The West is Gone for Good
The first and most obvious failure is in Europe. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria are gone for good.
Their emergence from Russia’s shadow was solidified when they joined the European Union and NATO.
Yes, many of these nations have pro-Russian parties, and a few (like Hungary or Slovakia) even have pro-Russian prime ministers. But their political posturing reveals a crucial distinction: Getting access to Russian gas and annoying Brussels is one thing. Willingly abandoning their sovereignty to accept Moscow’s overlordship is quite another. None will rejoin Russia’s imperial domain.
The "Gray Zone" and the Rise of China
In the "gray zone," states like Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia occasionally seem to fall under Moscow’s sway, only to pull away again. They too remain committed to their independence.
Further east, Azerbaijan is rich enough and autocratic enough to say no to the Kremlin, enjoying the powerful backing of its ally, Turkey.
But the most significant shift is in Central Asia. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are no longer just Russia's backyard. They are now doing their best to balance Russia against deep economic ties with China. The Kazakhs and Uzbeks have become especially adept at playing this game.
The proof is in the paperwork. The Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a hollow shell, including only Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia.
Meanwhile, the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is the real regional powerhouse, including China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan. The non-Russian former Soviet republics in Asia know where their future lies and it is not with Moscow.
The Crown Jewel and the "Problem" Ally
Belarus and Ukraine deserve special attention, as they represent Putin's biggest strategic failures.
Belarus: Although formally part of a so-called "union state" with Russia, its illegitimate president, Alexander Lukashenko, has pulled off a stunning diplomatic feat. He has expressed his undying love for Russia incessantly while crucially keeping his country out of the Russian war against Ukraine. Three and a half years after the full-scale invasion began, Belarusian troops are still not involved in the fighting.
Lukashenko is even hedging his bets, making overtures to the Trump administration by freeing political prisoners. In return, the U.S. dropped sanctions on the Belarusian state airline, Belavia a clear signal that even Putin's closest "ally" is building an off-ramp.
Ukraine: This is the killing blow to Putin's project. Not only is Ukraine lost to Russia forever, but its formerly ambivalent people have been forged in fire, united in celebrating their own identity and rejecting all things Russian.
In losing Ukraine, Putin lost the jewel in Russia’s imperial crown.
The Dream is Alive, The Prospect is Dead
Putin is stubborn. There is no reason to think he has abandoned his imperial dreams. But his prospects are dead.
The time to rebuild the empire was in the 1990s, when the non-Russian states were weak, chaotic, and barely hanging on. As the former imperial metropole, Russia possessed ample coercive levers a huge army, nuclear weapons, and economic heft.
Putin's fatal mistake was invading Ukraine in 2022. The resulting war has irrevocably degraded Russia’s armed forces and pushed its economy toward recession and collapse.
Thanks to Putin, Russia’s imperial dreams may still be alive, but its ability to achieve them is gone. Dependent on China's and North Korea’s good will and largesse, Russia has truly become what many analysts now call it: "Burkina Faso with the bomb" a nation able to destroy and kill, but no longer able to conquer.