CaliToday (25/11/2025): Current U.S. intelligence estimates suggest that the Kremlin finds itself in a profound political stalemate one far more dangerous to the regime than the ongoing military struggle in Ukraine. The core of the crisis is not battlefield deadlock, but a deep-seated domestic liability: Moscow has no viable narrative to explain the astounding casualties, the billions of rubles burned, and the crippling economic decay.
Consequently, Vladimir Putin’s strategic objective has pivoted from achieving a decisive victory to simply prolonging the conflict indefinitely.
The Political Cost of Peace
According to economist Anders Åslund, Russia is no longer attempting to "win" the war in the traditional sense. A drawn-out conflict serves the regime’s stability, while peace poses an existential threat.
The danger lies in the inevitable consequences of a ceasefire or a definitive end to hostilities:
The Veteran Crisis: Over two million former combatants including pardoned convicts and prisoners promised freedom will eventually return home. These veterans, hardened by conflict and often disillusioned, will ask a singular, damning question: "What was it all for?"
Narrative Collapse: The Kremlin lacks a credible victory to showcase or a compelling story strong enough to withstand that moment of national reckoning. Putin's carefully crafted image of strategic genius would crumble under the weight of pointless sacrifice.
Putin’s Geopolitical Failure Trapped by Success
As historian Mark Galeotti notes, Putin is now trapped between fear and uncertainty. Even external diplomatic pressure, such as the peace plans reportedly proposed by the Trump administration, only highlights the failure of Russia's original war aims.
The simple, self-defeating truth is that Putin violated the oldest rule in geopolitics: Don't start a war you cannot win.
The initial stated objectives for the "Special Military Operation" have been inverted:
| Stated War Goal (2022) | Current Reality (2025) |
| "De-Nazification" | Ukraine remains a sovereign, defiant democracy. |
| "De-Militarization" | Ukraine now possesses one of Europe's strongest, most battle-hardened armies, armed with advanced Western technology. |
| "Blocking NATO Expansion" | Kyiv is closer to NATO membership than ever before, and the alliance is fundamentally revitalized. |
Even the capture of a few regional territories is not enough to sell as a "victory" to the Russian public after such a devastating national investment. Putin is aware that the peace, by forcing a confrontation with these unfulfilled aims, is now the most feared outcome.