Saturday, November 1, 2025

In "De-Risking" Move, India Rapidly Repatriates Gold Reserves, Citing Sanction Fears

CaliToday (01/11/2025): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aggressively accelerating the repatriation of its gold reserves, moving a significant portion of its bullion from foreign vaults back onto home soil. The move is seen as a major strategic "de-risking" effort, fueled by growing geopolitical anxieties following the Western-led freeze of over $300 billion in Russian assets.


In the six months from April to September this year, India repatriated approximately 64 tonnes of gold, according to the central bank's latest half-yearly report on foreign exchange reserves. This action is part of a deliberate and intensifying trend to secure sovereign assets within its own borders.

This rapid movement marks one of the largest physical transfers of gold by a major economy since the 1990s, signaling a deep shift in how central banks view counterparty risk and the sanctity of assets held abroad.


A Strategic Shift: Bringing the Bullion Home

The RBI's latest data reveals a clear and concerted policy to increase the share of gold stored domestically.

As of the end of September 2025, the RBI's total gold reserves stood at 880.18 tonnes. Of this, the amount stored within India has surged to 575.82 tonnes representing a clear majority of its total holdings.

The remaining offshore reserves include:

  • 290.37 tonnes held in custody with the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

  • 13.99 tonnes held as gold deposits.

This repatriation is not a new policy, but its pace is. The 64-tonne move follows several other massive transfers. In October of last year, the RBI repatriated 102 tonnes. This was followed by another 100-tonne transfer in May of this year, as confirmed by banking and analyst sources.

This acceleration underscores a growing lack of trust in the traditional framework of global finance.


The Catalyst: "If You Don't Hold It, You Don't Own It"

The primary driver for this strategic pivot is unequivocal: the G7's decision to freeze Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves following the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

This move sent a shockwave through the central banking world, demonstrating that reserves held in foreign jurisdictions are not sovereign property, but rather "claims" that can be frozen or seized based on political alignments.

Ritesh Jain, founder of Pinetree Macro, an investment advisory firm, told the Economic Times that the RBI's urgency is warranted.

"In this new era, if you don't physically hold your gold, it doesn't really belong to you," Jain noted.

This sentiment is echoed by other major financial figures. Ken Griffin, founder of the hedge fund Citadel, recently remarked that investors and by extension, nations are increasingly viewing gold as a safer store of value than the U.S. dollar. The dollar, long the global reserve currency, has weakened against most key currencies this year amid domestic instabilities and concerns over rising U.S. import tariffs.

Market Reacts Amid Bullish Long-Term Forecasts

This massive, sustained buying and repatriation by central banks like India is providing a strong, structural support for the gold price, even as it faces short-term volatility.

On the spot market today (November 1), gold prices pulled back from recent highs, trading around $4,003.10 per ounce. This marks a 0.56% dip over the last 24 hours but holds onto a powerful 3.51% gain over the past 30 days.

The physical movement of gold by central banks reinforces a new bullish consensus for the metal.

Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) recently stated they believe the gold market has entered a new bull cycle that could last well into 2026. This sentiment was solidified at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Global Precious Metals Conference held from October 26-28. At the conference, the consensus forecast among experts was that gold prices would surge to $4,980.30 per ounce by this time next year, driven by persistent geopolitical risk, central bank buying, and investor hedging against fiat currencies.


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