NEW YORK, NY – On the eve of a knife-edge mayoral election, a stunning new poll reveals that nearly 765,000 residents roughly 9% of the city's entire population vow to leave New York City "immediately" if Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins.
The figure, equivalent to the entire population of Seattle or Las Vegas, highlights profound anxieties over Mamdani's far-left platform, which includes major tax hikes and a massive expansion of city spending.
The survey, conducted by J.L. Partners and published by the Daily Mail, paints an even starker picture of a potential mass migration. An additional 2.12 million New Yorkers, or one in four residents, said they would "seriously consider" leaving if Mamdani takes office.
Pollster James Johnson warned the result could trigger an "economic earthquake." The groups most likely to leave are high-income earners, older residents, white voters, and residents of Staten Island, threatening a catastrophic drain of the city's tax base.
A City Deeply Divided: The Data Breakdown
The survey data reveals deep demographic and geographic fractures across the five boroughs:
Boroughs: Staten Island leads the potential exodus, with a staggering 21% vowing to leave and 54% considering it. This far outpaces Manhattan (6% will leave, 20% will consider) and Brooklyn (8% will leave, 18% will consider).
Income: High-income earners are the most alarmed. Residents earning over $250,000 per year expressed significant pessimism, with many labeling a Mamdani-led New York a "disaster," "hellscape," or a "failed city."
Demographics: 12% of men affirmed they would leave, compared to 7% of women. The 50-64 age group was the most likely to exit (12%), with 33% in that bracket also "considering" it.
Race: 13% of white residents and 11% of Asian-American residents said they would move.
Destinations: Preferred destinations for those planning to move are low-tax states with a lower cost of living, chiefly Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
Mamdani Leads as Trump, Musk Urge Strategic Voting
The panic is being fueled by polling that shows Mamdani with a consistent, though narrowing, lead.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll (Oct. 23-27) places Mamdani in first place with 43% of the vote. He is followed by Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent or centrist) at 33% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 14%, with 6% of voters still undecided.
The Quinnipiac poll also highlights a massive generational divide: Mamdani commands a staggering 64% of voters aged 18-34, while voters over 50 heavily favor Cuomo.
Another poll from AtlasIntel shows a similar race (Mamdani 40.6%, Cuomo 34%, Sliwa 24.1%), but notes the gap has been closing fast in the final days.
The high-stakes race has drawn intervention from national figures. On Monday, President Donald Trump issued a surprise endorsement for Andrew Cuomo, urging Republican voters to "skip Sliwa to stop Mamdani from winning."
Elon Musk echoed that sentiment on X (formerly Twitter), warning New Yorkers "don't commit political suicide" by electing the socialist candidate. He cautioned, "A vote for Sliwa is effectively a vote for Mamdani."
The Final Hours
With turnout projected to reach nearly 2 million people the highest level since 1969 the candidates are in a final sprint. Mamdani is rallying supporters in Queens, calling for "radical reform," while both Cuomo and Sliwa are hammering home messages of public safety and economic stability.
Observers note this election is now more than a political contest; it is a battle that could fundamentally reshape the demographic, economic, and political future of America's largest city.