WASHINGTON D.C. – President Donald Trump, in remarks made today, left open the deeply controversial possibility that the United States could conduct its first underground nuclear test in over three decades. The ambiguous statement, seen as a geopolitical "shock move," immediately triggered alarm among allies and arms control experts, who warn it could ignite a new global arms race.
This statement shatters the long-standing bipartisan consensus that has maintained a U.S. moratorium on "live" explosive nuclear testing since 1992.
A Direct Warning to Russia and China
While President Trump did not confirm any specific plans, his comments were clearly aimed at adversaries amid escalating global tensions. When questioned by reporters about the nation's nuclear deterrent strategy, the President was non-committal.
"We are dealing with nuclear powers. They are testing, they are building, they are doing things," Trump stated, in an apparent reference to Russia and China. "We have to be the strongest. We are modernizing our entire arsenal... We'll see what happens. I don't rule anything out."
The comments are being interpreted as a direct response to two key developments:
Russia's New Posture: Tensions with Moscow are at a post-Cold War high. Following repeated interceptions of Russian military aircraft over the Baltic and escalating rhetoric over Ukraine, Russia recently revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This move gave Moscow the legal freedom to resume testing, arguing it was simply matching the U.S. policy of not having ratified the treaty.
China's Rapid Expansion: The Trump administration has repeatedly expressed frustration over China's opaque but rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, including the construction of hundreds of new missile silos. The U.S. has long suspected China may be conducting very low-yield sub-critical tests, though this is unconfirmed.
The End of the Moratorium?
The United States has not conducted a live explosive nuclear test since September 1992.
For the past 33 years, the U.S. has relied on a "Stockpile Stewardship Program." This program uses advanced supercomputer simulations and "sub-critical" experiments (which do not produce a nuclear chain reaction) at facilities like the Nevada Test Site to verify the safety and reliability of its existing warheads.
A decision to resume underground testing would signal that the U.S. either no longer trusts these simulations or wishes to develop entirely new types of warheads that require live detonation.
Immediate Backlash from Experts
Arms control advocates immediately condemned the President's remarks, warning that even suggesting a test is a catastrophic negotiating error.
"This is incredibly dangerous. It's a textbook example of a security dilemma," said a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association. "If the U.S. breaks the moratorium, it gives Russia and China the perfect excuse to openly and aggressively resume their own testing. It will trigger a three-way arms race that nobody can win, and it will terrify U.S. allies."
Allied nations, particularly those under the U.S. nuclear umbrella like Japan, South Korea, and NATO members, are expected to privately express extreme concern, as the move would radically destabilize the global non-proliferation framework. While Trump's remarks stop short of a formal policy change, they have intentionally introduced a volatile new uncertainty into global politics.