STOCKHOLM – As the global literary community holds its breath, speculation is intensifying over who will win the Nobel Prize in Literature, with experts pointing to Swiss postmodern novelist Christian Kracht and Australian authors Gerald Murnane and Alexis Wright as leading contenders ahead of the Swedish Academy's highly anticipated announcement on Thursday.
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| Swiss author Christian Kracht, a German-language postmodernist who writes about pop culture and consumerism, is one of the favourites for the Nobel literature prize (Stefanie Loos) |
Last year, the Academy made history by selecting South Korea’s Han Kang, the first Asian woman to receive the prestigious award. But this year, a number of Nobel-watchers predict the prize is likely to swing back to a more traditional choice: a European man.
"I think the prize will go to a European man—the Academy can do that with a clear conscience because last year they chose a non-European woman," Lina Kalmteg, a cultural critic for Sweden’s public radio, told AFP.
Among the European names being circulated are Kracht, Hungary's Laszlo Krasznahorkai and Peter Nadas, and Romania's Mircea Cartarescu.
Christian Kracht, a 58-year-old postmodernist who writes in German and focuses on themes of pop culture and consumerism, is a clear favorite in literary circles, according to Bjorn Wiman, culture editor of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter. Wiman noted a telling clue at this year's Gothenburg Book Fair, held just weeks before the Nobel announcement.
"Many members of the Swedish Academy were there, sitting in the front row at his event," Wiman told AFP. "And that's often a sure sign," he added, remarking that the same thing happened before Austrian playwright Elfriede Jelinek won in 2004.
A Changed Academy?
Since it was first awarded in 1901, the Nobel Prize in Literature has been overwhelmingly dominated by Western male writers. Of the 121 laureates, only 18 have been women, with scant representation from Asian or Middle Eastern languages and none from an African language.
However, a devastating #MeToo scandal in 2018 shattered the institution, leading to the replacement of more than half its members. The reformed Academy pledged to broaden the prize's scope, both geographically and linguistically, and has since demonstrated a greater gender balance among its laureates. In fact, every winner since 2018 has been a woman.
"Authors like Han Kang would have been unimaginable five or six years ago," Wiman said, noting that at 53, she was also younger than the Academy’s traditional laureates. Despite this, he also believes the prize is likely to go to a man this year "from the English, German, or French-speaking worlds."
'A Strange Masterpiece' from Down Under
While a return to Europe is a strong theory, the Academy's famously secretive 18-member committee could easily look elsewhere. Among the most frequently mentioned potential winners are Australia’s Gerald Murnane and his fellow Indigenous author Alexis Wright.
Born in Melbourne in 1939, Murnane is a reclusive and enigmatic figure who has never left Australia. He describes his work as "literary fiction" containing "the contents of my mind." His seminal 1982 novel, "The Plains," an exploration of Australian landed gentry culture, was described by The New Yorker as a "strange masterpiece" that feels more like a dream than a book.
His reclusive nature has become part of his legend. "The question is whether he would even answer the phone [when the Academy calls]. I don't even know if he has one," joked Josefin de Gregorio, a literary critic for the Swedish newspaper SvD.
"He lives in the countryside, he is not very accessible," she said of her personal favorite. "I hope he wins, I want more people to know his fantastic works."
Other perennial names in the running include Canada's Anne Carson, Chile's Raul Zurita, India's Amitav Ghosh, and Mexico's Cristina Rivera Garza.
The 2025 laureate, who will receive a check for $1.2 million, will be announced on Thursday at 1:00 p.m. (11:00 GMT), ending months of speculation and potentially crowning a new global literary icon.