CaliToday (31/10/2025): The global gold market was thrown into a speculative frenzy today, while Vietnam’s domestic market experienced a bizarre and complete divergence, leaving local investors stunned.
In one of the most dramatic single-day rallies in recent history, world gold prices skyrocketed by nearly $100, breaching an unprecedented $4,042 per ounce. This explosive move came on the heels of a shock announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
However, in stark contrast, Vietnam's national SJC gold brand moved in the complete opposite direction. Instead of following the global surge, local prices for SJC bullion posted a surprising decrease this morning, with trading settling around the 147.8 million VND per tael mark.
The Global Story: A Fed-Fueled Rocket
The global rally was triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to cut its benchmark interest rate. The move, which the Fed attributed to new, troubling data showing a significant weakening in the U.S. labor market, sent a wave of fear through financial markets.
The effect on gold was immediate and predictable:
Safe-Haven Rush: Fears of an economic slowdown or recession sent investors fleeing from riskier assets (like stocks) and piling into gold, the world's premier safe-haven asset.
Lower Opportunity Cost: A rate cut makes holding non-yielding bullion more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
Weaker Dollar: The rate cut caused the U.S. dollar to fall, making gold (which is priced in dollars) cheaper for investors holding other currencies, further boosting demand.
The Local Paradox: Vietnam's Disconnected Market
The situation in Vietnam, however, could not have been more different. The drop in SJC prices highlights the unique, insulated, and highly-regulated nature of Vietnam's domestic gold market.
Analysts point out that the SJC price is not purely driven by global trends but is heavily influenced by local factors:
Domestic Supply and Demand: The SJC brand is state-controlled, and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) holds a monopoly on producing SJC gold bars. This restricted supply means local demand dynamics and profit-taking by local holders have an outsized impact on the price.
Profit-Taking: With local prices already at historic highs, it is likely that many Vietnamese investors chose to "sell the news," taking profits from the recent rally rather than buying into the global hysteria.
The Massive Premium: The most critical factor is the enormous, long-standing gap (chênh lệch) between domestic and world prices.
Even with today's divergence, this gap remains extraordinary. At the new world price of $4,042/ounce (which translates to approximately 121.75 million VND/tael), the domestic SJC price of 147.8 million VND/tael is still more than 26 million VND (over $1,000) higher than the international price.
This massive premium suggests the local price is already artificially inflated, making it less susceptible to global gains and highly vulnerable to local selling pressure.
In short, the world is buying gold out of economic fear, while Vietnam appears to be trading on its own unique, internal market dynamics.