CaliToday (21/9/2025): Vietnam's domestic coffee market experienced a sudden and dramatic price drop this morning, wiping out recent gains and raising concerns among farmers and traders. Prices for Robusta beans, the country's primary coffee export, fell sharply by approximately 5,000 VND per kilogram in a single session.
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| Domestic coffee prices continue to fall. (Illustrative photo: KT) |
As of Sunday morning, domestic prices in the key growing regions of the Central Highlands were hovering between 110,800 to 111,500 VND per kilogram ($4.28 - $4.31 USD/kg). This marks a significant downturn from the higher levels seen just last week, where prices were pushing towards 120,000 VND/kg.
Market analysts are attributing the sharp correction to a confluence of international and domestic factors, chief among them being macroeconomic shifts and speculation surrounding US trade policy.
The two primary drivers behind the sell-off are believed to be:
Strengthening U.S. Dollar: A recent recovery in the value of the U.S. dollar on global markets has put downward pressure on commodity prices. Since coffee is traded internationally in USD, a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. This often leads to a pullback in demand and a corresponding drop in the underlying commodity price to adjust for the currency valuation.
Speculation on U.S. Tariff Exemptions: The market has been rattled by news and rumors from the United States regarding a potential reciprocal tariff exemption for imported coffee. While such a policy could be beneficial in the long term by stabilizing a major export market, the immediate uncertainty has injected volatility. Traders, fearing that a new trade framework could alter current market dynamics or that the news signals a potential easing of global supply pressures, have reportedly initiated a sell-off to lock in profits from the previously high price levels.
This price shock comes after a period of historically high prices for Vietnamese coffee, driven by global supply shortages and strong demand. Farmers in provinces like Dak Lak and Lam Dong, who had been benefiting from the high prices, are now facing renewed uncertainty.
"The drop was very sudden," said a coffee trader based in Dak Lak. "Yesterday, the mood was still optimistic. Today, everyone is selling. The international signals, especially from the US, are making the market very nervous."
The situation remains fluid as the market digests these new developments. While Vietnam's position as the world's leading Robusta producer provides a strong fundamental backdrop, this recent plunge serves as a stark reminder of how sensitive local agricultural prices are to global financial markets and international trade policy shifts. All eyes will now be on the movement of the USD and any concrete policy announcements from the U.S. to determine the market's next direction.
