CaliToday (11/9/2025): Our world is warming, and it's having complex effects on our environment—including the parts we rely on for food. Researchers have identified one such troubling interaction while studying Atlantic striped bass, raising alarms about a disruption that could have cascading effects throughout the marine ecosystem.
What is Happening?
For some time, the striped bass population has been in decline due to overfishing. Last year's fall fishing season appeared to be an exception, with anglers reporting impressive catches. However, those numbers were not reflected in the populations that arrived in nearby bays to spawn in the spring.
John Waldman, an aquatic conservation biologist from the City University of New York, called the low reproductive success rate of striped bass "a real mystery," according to Yale Environment 360.
A potential clue comes from the primary food source for striped bass: a type of herring known as menhaden. They, too, are failing to return from the ocean to spawn in their usual numbers.
"I don't know whether this is a larger cyclical pattern, if it's governed by how they're managed, or if it's the rising water temperatures," said Janelle Morano, a Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University who studies changes in menhaden distribution, in a statement to Yale Environment 360. "But something's going on, and it's real."
Why Does This Shift in Spawning Patterns Matter?
The reduced activity during the fish's traditional spawning season may be due to what researchers call a "phenological mismatch." "Phenology" refers to the seasonal cycles of various animal and plant behaviors—such as flowers blooming in the spring and pollinators emerging at the same time to feed on them.
Countless expressions of phenology are connected in intricate and delicate ways. If one species misses its seasonal cues or begins its cycle early or late, all the species that interact with it will also be affected.
For example, monarch butterflies typically fly south for the winter just as the milkweed plants they feed on begin to die off. But with warmer temperatures, monarchs are now migrating later in the season, failing to find food along their route and dying before they reach their wintering grounds.
If menhaden and striped bass are failing to spawn due to warmer waters and shifting food sources, the populations of both species could plummet. This would impact every species that depends on them for food or for population control, creating ripple effects that could affect everything from plankton to dolphins.
This is also part of a broader pattern of phenological risks impacting species humans depend on, such as wine grapes.
What is Being Done About the Phenological Mismatch in Fish?
While this phenomenon is well-studied on land, researchers are only just beginning to investigate it in the ocean. As of now, no methods have been proposed for direct intervention.
However, we can help slow the rise in global temperatures by transitioning to less-polluting energy sources, supporting environmentally friendly brands, and voting for candidates who prioritize environmental protection.
