WARSAW, Poland – The Polish government has issued an urgent and unequivocal warning to its citizens, advising them to "immediately leave" the territory of neighboring Belarus. The stark advisory, published by the Polish Foreign Ministry on Friday, September 26, 2025, points to rapidly deteriorating relations, rising hostility from Minsk, and a volatile security situation that Warsaw believes poses a direct risk to its nationals.
The travel warning, elevated to its highest level, is the most dramatic signal to date of the deepening abyss between the two countries. It reflects a complete breakdown in trust and comes amid fears of arbitrary detentions and provocations orchestrated by the Belarusian regime.
"In light of growing tensions, hostile actions by Belarusian authorities against Poland, and the potential for unforeseen incidents, we urge all Polish citizens currently in Belarus to leave its territory with available commercial and private means," the official statement read. It also strongly advised against all travel to the country, noting that consular services could become severely limited or impossible to provide in an emergency.
A Relationship at Breaking Point
The diplomatic relationship between Warsaw, a staunch member of NATO and the European Union, and Minsk, Moscow's closest ally, has been in a state of near-constant crisis for years. The current escalation is rooted in several key factors:
Belarus's Role in the War on Ukraine: Belarus has served as a critical staging ground for Russian forces since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This complicity has made it a pariah state in the eyes of Poland, which is one of Ukraine's most significant military and humanitarian supporters.
Hybrid Warfare and Border Crisis: Poland and its Baltic neighbors have long accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's regime of waging "hybrid warfare" by orchestrating a migrant crisis. For years, Minsk has been accused of luring thousands of migrants from the Middle East and Africa to its border and then forcing them to illegally cross into Poland in an effort to destabilize the EU. This has led Poland to construct a formidable wall and heavily militarize its border.
Presence of Wagner Mercenaries: The stationing of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus following their 2023 mutiny has been viewed by Warsaw as a direct threat, raising fears they could be used to instigate border provocations or stir unrest.
Support for Belarusian Opposition: Poland has granted refuge to numerous Belarusian democratic opposition figures, activists, and journalists who have fled the brutal crackdown by the Lukashenko regime. This has been a constant source of animosity from Minsk, which accuses Warsaw of attempting to foment a coup.
Fears of Arbitrary Arrests
The immediate trigger for the "leave now" warning is believed to be linked to a series of recent hostile acts, including the arbitrary arrest and detention of individuals with Polish citizenship or heritage within Belarus. Human rights groups have warned that the Belarusian KGB often uses foreign nationals as political pawns. Warsaw likely fears its citizens could be targeted for espionage charges or used as bargaining chips.
This advisory underscores the precarious position of Eastern Europe, which stands on a geopolitical fault line. The heavily fortified border between Poland and Belarus is not just a national boundary; it represents the frontier between NATO and the Russian sphere of influence. The latest move by Poland is a clear indication that it believes the situation has become dangerously unpredictable, and the risk of a miscalculation or a deliberate provocation is now unacceptably high.
