Thursday, September 25, 2025

Pentagon Warns of 'Miscalculation' Risk as China Intensifies Aggressive Military Posturing Around Taiwan

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Defense on Thursday issued a stark warning regarding China's intensified military activities near Taiwan, stating that Beijing's increasingly aggressive actions are elevating the risk of a dangerous miscalculation in the already tense region.

Photo: Taiwanese flag

The Pentagon's expression of concern comes as the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) continues to conduct a near-constant campaign of intimidation aimed at the democratically-governed island, which Beijing claims as its own territory. U.S. officials are cautioning that these provocative maneuvers, designed to wear down Taiwan's defenses and morale, could inadvertently trigger a wider conflict.



A "New Normal" of Intimidation and Coercion

In recent months, China has deliberately created a "new normal" of military pressure, moving beyond occasional drills to a sustained presence of warships and aircraft in the waters and skies around Taiwan. This aggressive posturing includes:

  • Near-Daily Air Incursions: PLA aircraft, including fighter jets and bombers, now routinely cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait—a long-respected unofficial buffer—and enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). These sorties are designed to test Taiwan's response times, exhaust its pilots and equipment, and desensitize the international community to China's military presence.

  • "Gray-Zone" Tactics: Beijing has increasingly utilized its Coast Guard and maritime militia to conduct incursions around Taiwan's outlying islands, such as Kinmen. Analysts view these actions as "rehearsals for a blockade," aimed at eroding Taiwanese sovereignty and testing its ability to resupply its territories without triggering a full military response.

  • Large-Scale "Dress Rehearsals": Senior U.S. military officials have described China's large-scale joint-force exercises, which often encircle the island, not as mere training but as "dress rehearsals for a forced unification." These drills simulate precision strikes, amphibious assaults, and a complete blockade of Taiwan.

The Pentagon's Call for Restraint

The statement from the Department of Defense on Thursday highlighted the primary danger of this strategy. While Beijing may view these actions as a form of political signaling and coercion, the high operational tempo and close proximity of military forces dramatically increase the chances of an accident. A collision between aircraft or vessels, or a misunderstanding of intent, could quickly escalate into a direct confrontation.

"The PRC's operational tempo and provocative actions aimed at Taiwan are destabilizing and increase the risk of miscalculation," a Pentagon spokesperson stated. "We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and engage in meaningful dialogue."

A Tense Standoff in the Taiwan Strait

This latest warning from Washington underscores the fragility of the security situation in the Indo-Pacific. China's leader, Xi Jinping, has set a goal for the PLA to be capable of seizing Taiwan by 2027, and the country's rapid military modernization is seen as a direct effort to achieve that objective.

In response, Taiwan has increased its own defense spending and is deepening its security cooperation with the United States and other regional partners. The U.S. maintains its long-standing policy of ensuring Taiwan has the means to defend itself, but the constant and aggressive nature of China's military activities ensures the Taiwan Strait remains one of the world's most dangerous potential flashpoints.