The largest dam ever conceived symbolizes Beijing's ambition to dominate the 21st century, from oil to water.
By Brahma Chellaney September 16, 2025, 05:05 JST
China is constructing a dam so massive that it could alter the world's water systems as profoundly as climate change itself, argues Brahma Chellaney in a powerful analysis this week. In what he describes as an "ecological disaster in the making," Beijing's ambitions are creating a threat that extends far beyond Asia.
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| The Yarlung Zangbo River In Xizang, China. The river is known as the Brahmaputra after it curves into India. © AP |
The $168 billion Himalayan super dam is being built on the Yarlung Zangbo river (known downstream as the Brahmaputra) in one of the most seismically active regions on the planet. The location is a geopolitical flashpoint, set amidst a heavily militarized border region where Beijing lays claim to India's vast state of Arunachal Pradesh, labeling it "South Tibet."
"Building the world's largest-ever dam on a geological fault line is not just reckless; it is a calculated gamble with cataclysmic potential," writes Chellaney, the author of "Water: Asia's New Battleground." He warns, "Any collapse, whether from structural weakness or a reservoir-induced earthquake, would be devastating for Northeast India and Bangladesh, putting tens of millions of people at risk."
The threat, Chellaney contends, is not merely regional but global. "Tibet is warming at twice the global average rate, accelerating the melting of its glaciers and permafrost," he explains. "With its towering heights reaching into the troposphere, the Tibetan Plateau shapes Asia's monsoons, stabilizes the climate across the Eurasian continent, and influences the Northern Hemisphere's general atmospheric circulation."
In Other Commentary This Week:
North Korea's Next Generation
Beijing also plays a critical role in the delicate matter of North Korea's succession plan. Along with Moscow, it appears to be giving a green light to Kim Ju Ae, the daughter of Kim Jong Un, by allowing her to participate in Chinese and Russian diplomatic ceremonies, argues Sangsoo Lee.
When Ju Ae first began appearing regularly beside her father in 2022, "many observers assumed this was merely a family gesture -- similar to how Kim's wife, Ri Sol Ju, was elevated to first lady to project the image of 'a normal state,'" Lee writes. "Three years on, however, Ju Ae's continued presence at military parades, missile launches, and even diplomatic events signals the initial turn of North Korea's fourth dynastic succession."
Lee posits that Kim Jong Un's strategy is to secure his daughter's future rule on two pillars: the country's nuclear deterrent and the backing of its two powerful allies. "By nesting Ju Ae's rise within this trilateral framework [China, Russia, and North Korea], Kim Jong Un ensures that her eventual leadership will be based on North Korea's nuclear deterrence capabilities and the support of two powerful allies. This strategy is designed to anchor North Korea's next generation of leadership in a durable security architecture beyond the West's reach."
The Quad's Decline and Stable Oil Prices
Elsewhere in this week's opinion pages, Derek Grossman argues that the Quad a security grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. is in what may be an irreversible decline.
Meanwhile, Antoine Halff analyzes how, despite war, OPEC surprises, and geopolitical risks, oil prices have remained remarkably stable in 2025. He attributes this stability to two key factors: China's massive stockpiling of oil and the rise of real-time satellite data, which is fundamentally changing market dynamics and reducing volatility.
