TAIWAN – On Saturday morning, Taiwanese voters began casting their ballots in a decisive recall election that could reshape the balance of power in parliament and hand control to President Lai Ching-te's party.
This recall effort was initiated by supporters of Mr. Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), targeting 31 lawmakers from the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). They accuse these legislators of holding a pro-China stance that endangers Taiwan's security.
In contrast, the Kuomintang (KMT), which advocates for closer ties with Beijing, has condemned the move as a "power grab." The KMT currently controls the legislature with the support of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP).
The vote follows months of political tension, ever since Mr. Lai won the 2024 presidential election but his DPP lost its majority in parliament. The KMT-TPP alliance has continually obstructed the government's agenda, leading to heated confrontations and large-scale protests, which culminated in the current recall campaign.
To regain temporary control, the DPP needs to successfully recall at least 12 KMT lawmakers. According to risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, there is a 60% probability of this outcome. However, to solidify a majority, the DPP will face the significant challenge of needing to win at least six more seats in subsequent by-elections.
Regardless of the outcome, analysts predict that Taiwan's political divisions will deepen, especially as both sides have used harsh rhetoric. Beijing has also shown particular interest in the vote, and the Taipei government has warned of evidence of interference from China.
The final result will largely depend on voter turnout. For a lawmaker to be recalled, the number of "yes" votes must exceed the "no" votes and also cross the threshold of 25% of all registered voters in that constituency.
