TOKYO – Japan has been plunged into a period of profound political uncertainty after the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, lost its majority in the upper house of parliament in Sunday's pivotal election. The result cripples Ishiba's administration, creating a "twisted Diet" that severely undermines his ability to govern and raises serious questions about his political future.
The election loss means Mr. Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, now lack a majority in both houses of the Diet (parliament), a situation that historically leads to legislative paralysis and political instability.
The Challenge of a 'Twisted Diet'
In Japan's political system, a "twisted Diet" (Nejire Kokkai) occurs when no single party or coalition controls both the powerful lower house and the upper house. While the prime minister is chosen by the lower house, and it holds ultimate power over the budget and treaties, the upper house can veto or significantly delay all other legislation.
This electoral outcome effectively gives the opposition a powerful tool to block the government's agenda. For Prime Minister Ishiba, this means his administration is now at the mercy of his political rivals, forced to engage in painstaking negotiations and make significant concessions to pass even routine legislation.
Governing from a Weakened Position
The immediate consequence of the election is that Prime Minister Ishiba must now attempt to lead a "minority government." Analysts predict a period of legislative gridlock, with key government policies facing major hurdles. This includes:
Economic Reforms: Efforts to tackle soaring prices and stagnant wages, which were key issues for voters, will be difficult to implement without opposition support.
Security Policy: Any attempts to push through controversial changes to Japan's defense posture will likely be stalled.
Trade Negotiations: The government's weakened position complicates its ability to negotiate and ratify crucial trade deals, notably with the United States ahead of a looming August 1 tariff deadline.
Risk of Instability and Pressure to Resign
The electoral defeat has severely damaged Prime Minister Ishiba's credibility and authority. Political analysts widely predict that Japan is entering a period of instability, potentially reviving the "revolving door" of prime ministers that characterized its politics in the past.
The pressure on Ishiba is mounting from two directions:
A Galvanized Opposition: Opposition parties, sensing the government's weakness, are expected to aggressively challenge the administration and block its initiatives to score political points.
Internal Party Dissent: Perhaps more dangerously for Ishiba, the loss has fueled discontent within his own LDP. Factions within the party, disappointed by the results and concerned about their own political futures, are reportedly increasing pressure on him to step down to take responsibility for the defeat.
While Ishiba has publicly vowed to stay on and fulfill his responsibilities, his grip on power is now considered extremely fragile. His ability to survive will depend on whether he can successfully negotiate with the opposition or quell the growing rebellion within his own party.
