CaliToday (21/10/2025): After two decades of historic progress, a convergence of climate change, funding gaps, and population growth threatens to unleash a resurgence of one of the world's deadliest diseases.
Dual-insecticide mosquito nets are a key tool in the fight against malaria, which is most common in Africa (YASUYOSHI CHIBA)
The global campaign against malaria, one of the 21st century's most significant public health victories, has dangerously stalled. After two decades of relentless effort that successfully halved mortality rates, a confluence of mounting threats—chief among them climate change, insecticide resistance, and rapid population growth—is threatening to undo hard-won gains and trigger a resurgence of the deadly mosquito-borne illness, campaigners warned on Tuesday.
A new report by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA) and Malaria No More UK sounds a stark alarm: insufficient funding for increasingly costly prevention programs is putting the world at a precipice. The potential cost is measured in hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars in lost economic potential.
The impact is already being felt. According to the UN's World Malaria Report 2024, there were approximately 263 million malaria cases globally in 2023, a worrying increase of 11 million from the previous year.
Africa, which shoulders 95 percent of the global malaria burden, remains the epicenter of the crisis. The continent registered a staggering 590,000 deaths from the disease in 2023. The new report highlights that this "perfect storm" of challenges will be most keenly felt there.
"Insufficient funding, however, has caused malaria progress to stall," the report states bleakly. "A perfect storm of climate change, rising drug and insecticide resistance, trade disruptions, and global insecurity further undermine the efficacy of malaria interventions."
This urgent warning comes just ahead of a crucial meeting in South Africa on November 21st to secure contributions for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. The Global Fund is the financial backbone of the effort, covering 59 percent of all international malaria spending, and its replenishment is now more critical than ever.
Climate Change: A Threat Multiplier
Climate change is no longer a future threat; it is actively expanding the malaria map.
"Increases in temperature and flooding due to climate change have increased the number of mosquito breeding sites," Joy Phumaphi, ALMA's executive secretary, told AFP.
This is creating new vulnerabilities in areas previously untouched by the disease. In Rwanda, for example, Phumaphi noted that these deadly breeding sites now exist at higher altitudes that were historically too cold for malaria-carrying mosquitoes to survive.
The report links this directly to recent outbreaks. Several African countries reported significant upsurges in malaria cases between January and June 2025, immediately following periods of heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding—a hallmark of a warming and unstable climate.
Compounding this, the climate shifts are facilitating the spread of new threats. The highly adaptive Anopheles stephensi mosquito, an invasive species from Asia known for its resilience and ability to thrive in urban areas, has now spread into Africa. This, combined with rising resistance to first-line insecticides, makes traditional control methods less effective.
A Race Against Time and Rising Costs
As the challenges mount, the solutions are becoming more complex and expensive.
New-generation prevention methods, such as dual-insecticide mosquito nets and the high-tech use of drones to disperse chemicals that kill mosquito larvae, are proving effective. But they are also significantly more costly than the interventions that drove progress over the last two decades.
At the same time, the human side of the equation has changed dramatically. Africa's population has almost doubled in the past 30 years, meaning public health systems must protect far more people with strained budgets.
"It's more expensive," Phumaphi explained, "but we also have to cover a bigger population than before."
In the vaccine pipeline, a current anti-malaria vaccine (RTS,S) is being deployed in 23 African countries. While a landmark achievement, it offers around 40 percent efficacy and must be accompanied by other prevention measures. A new vaccine, R21, is also being rolled out, with hopes for a new candidate currently in human trials to eventually show 80 percent efficacy.
The Human and Economic Stakes
The cost of failure is staggering, extending far beyond the immediate health crisis. In Nigeria, the world's most malaria-affected country, the disease is a leading cause of worker and student absenteeism. It is also known to cause learning and cognitive disruption in children, stealing future potential.
Phumaphi described malaria as a "major cause of poverty," forcing families into "huge amounts of out-of-pocket payments" for treatment and care.
Conversely, the report emphasizes that investing in eradication would unlock "massive" economic returns. Ridding countries of the disease would boost productivity, strengthen health systems, and make nations more attractive for tourism and investment. "Once this market is protected, their purchasing power is enormous," she added.
The choice outlined by the report is stark. Funding models project a catastrophic scenario: if all prevention interventions were to halt, Africa could face a staggering $83 billion in lost GDP by 2030. This financial collapse would be accompanied by 525 million additional malaria cases and 990,000 more deaths, on top of the already unacceptably high annual toll.
The message is clear: the progress of the last two decades was not permanent. Without an immediate, robust, and sustained injection of funding, the global fight against one of humanity's oldest enemies could be tragically lost.
