CaliToday (15/10/2025): A leading Australian think tank has issued a stark warning that the nation must urgently adopt an "unconventional deterrence" policy, drawing lessons from guerrilla insurgencies and small-state survival tactics to counter growing threats from China and Russia.
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| Under the tripartite AUKUS pact with the United States and the United Kingdom, Australia will acquire at least three Virginia class submarines from the United States within 15 years (COLIN MURTY) |
In a report released Wednesday, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) argued that Canberra faces a critical "deterrence gap" and can no longer solely depend on its traditional alliances to guarantee its security in an increasingly hostile geopolitical landscape.
The warning comes as Australia embarks on a massive military modernization program under the AUKUS security pact with the United States and the United Kingdom. While the centerpiece of the pact is the acquisition of at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines, the first of these vessels is not expected to be operational for up to 15 years, leaving a significant window of vulnerability.
"Australia's traditional reliance upon 'great and powerful friends' and extended nuclear deterrence now seems no longer assured," the authors of the non-partisan ASPI report wrote. "Australia has options to fill today's deterrence gap: we just need to look beyond conventional paradigms."
ASPI, which receives funding from both the Australian Department of Defence and the U.S. State Department, directly confronts the reality of Australia's conventional military "inferiority" against a superpower like China. Instead of attempting to match its adversaries symmetrically, the report argues for an asymmetric approach, citing historical examples where smaller, more agile forces inflicted devastating costs on larger powers. The Chechen insurgency against Russia in the 1990s was highlighted as a case where innovative tactics can achieve significant deterrent effects.
"History demonstrates that innovative concepts and asymmetric capabilities can achieve deterrent effects ahead of and during conflict," the report states.
The authors contend that Australia's current defense posture is ill-suited to the modern challenges posed by autocratic regimes. "Australian concepts of deterrence don't address the nature of competition as currently practised by China and other autocratic regimes such as Russia, North Korea and Iran," they warned.
A key focus of the report is the need to counter Beijing's growing use of "grey-zone" tactics a spectrum of coercive actions like cyberwarfare, economic coercion, disinformation, and political subversion that fall below the threshold of declared war but are designed to undermine national sovereignty.
To reframe its strategic thinking, ASPI suggests Australia look to models like former Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew's description of his nation as a "poisonous shrimp" small, but capable of delivering a fatal blow to any predator that tries to swallow it. Similarly, the "porcupine" strategies of Switzerland and the Baltic states, which aim to make any invasion so costly and difficult that it deters potential aggressors, were presented as viable concepts for Australia to emulate.
To facilitate this strategic shift, ASPI called for major structural reforms within the Australian government, including the recreation of a powerful National Security Adviser role with sweeping oversight of the nation's intelligence agencies and reforms to espionage and defense laws.
This call for a strategic overhaul comes as Canberra is already engaged in a rapid military build-up, planning to increase defense spending to 2.4% of its GDP. However, the AUKUS submarine program alone carries a staggering price tag of up to $235 billion over the next three decades, a cost that has fueled significant public and political criticism. The ASPI report suggests that in the interim, a smarter, more unconventional approach is not just an option, but a necessity for Australia's survival.
