CALITODAY (August 14, 2025): Former National Security Advisor John Bolton said Wednesday that President Trump's tariffs could push India further away from the U.S. and deeper into an alliance with Russia and China.
Previously, President Trump had threatened to impose a 25% tariff on India for buying oil from the Kremlin, while not applying a similar penalty to China, which imports a larger volume of Russian oil.
"It's fair to say the reaction in India to this, especially with no tariffs on China, which has bought a lot of oil and gas from Russia, is that the Indians are extremely angry about this, and there are rumors that Putin will visit India later this year," Bolton said during an appearance on CNN's "AC360" on Wednesday, August 13.
"There are rumors that Prime Minister Modi of India will go to China for the first time since 2018. Clearly, both Moscow and Beijing will try to bring India closer to them," he added.
Earlier this year, China and the U.S. engaged in a tense trade war, with tariffs climbing into the triple digits, causing market anxiety and consumer concerns about soaring prices.
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to lower tariffs to more moderate levels: 10% on U.S. exports and 30% on goods imported from China.
Trump has avoided launching another "tariff war" with Beijing over its ties with the Kremlin.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was particularly close to Trump during his first term. The two leaders held joint rallies in both India and Texas to celebrate their bilateral relationship.
At the time, Trump called India "one of America's greatest, most devoted, and most loyal friends."
However, Trump's tone has become harsher regarding India's tariffs.
"What people don't want to talk about with India – they are the highest-taxing nation. They have the highest tariffs of any country. We do very, very little trade with India because their tariffs are so high," Trump said last week.
"So, we imposed a 25% tariff, but I think I will increase it significantly in the next 24 hours, because they are buying Russian oil. They are fueling the war machine, and if they do that, then I won't be happy," Trump added.
Modi last week reaffirmed India's relationship with Russia in a social media post.
Federal Judge Blocks Trump Administration's Broad Contraception Exemption Rule
The Trump administration's religious and moral exemption rules for the ObamaCare requirement—that all employer health insurance plans must cover contraception free of charge—were blocked by a federal judge on Wednesday.
District Judge Wendy Beetlestone in Philadelphia granted summary judgment, finding the regulations to be arbitrary, capricious, and in excess of the authority of the agencies that issued them in 2017.
Under the rule, virtually any for-profit or non-profit business, or insurance company, could exempt itself from the contraception mandate for religious or moral reasons. The rules also allowed publicly traded companies to receive an exemption for religious reasons, but not for moral ones.
The Affordable Care Act requires employer-sponsored health plans to cover at least one of 18 types of contraceptives approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Religious groups and employers sued, and in 2014, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the contraception mandate violated the rights under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) of closely-held private companies whose owners objected on religious grounds.
Federal agencies then tried to find a balance, but in 2017, the Trump administration issued a sweeping exemption. The rule did not require employers to apply for an exemption, as the administration argued that doing so would violate their religious freedom.
The states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and dozens of others sued to block this expansion of exemptions. The case reached the Supreme Court in 2020, where the justices upheld the Trump administration's rule on technical grounds but did not rule on the merits of the case.
The case was then sent back to the lower court, where a religious order—the Little Sisters of the Poor—joined the federal government in requesting summary judgment.
Beetlestone, an appointee of former President Obama, wrote that the Trump administration's religious rule failed to achieve the goal stated by the agencies—namely, to resolve the conflict between the contraception mandate and RFRA.
However, the rule grants exemptions to organizations that are "unlikely, or almost never, to maintain a religious objection," which raises doubts about the "rational connection" between the rule and its goal of resolving potential conflicts with RFRA, Beetlestone wrote.
The Little Sisters of the Poor will appeal the ruling in the coming weeks, according to the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty—a non-profit representing the order.
Newsom Outlines Plan to Counter Trump and Republican Redistricting
California Governor Gavin Newsom spoke to reporters on Thursday afternoon as the midterm redistricting battle heats up across the U.S. ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, just one day after he announced a "Liberation Day" event.
Newsom's remarks come as Democrats oppose Republican gerrymandering efforts in Texas, which could give the GOP an additional five seats in next year's elections. Newsom sent a letter to President Trump and leaders of red states earlier this week, calling on them to end the "redistricting war."
After Trump missed the August 13 deadline to respond, Governor Newsom said California would also redraw its own House map in response to the efforts to "rig" the boundaries in the Lone Star State of Texas.
Noem Claims 1.6 Million Undocumented Immigrants Have Left the U.S.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Thursday, August 14, that approximately 1.6 million undocumented immigrants have been removed from the U.S. since the Trump administration began—a claim based on information from an immigration-restrictionist group that acknowledges its own estimates may be exaggerated.
"In just under 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have departed from the U.S. population. This is huge. This means safer streets, saving taxpayer money, less strain on schools and hospital services, and better job opportunities for Americans," Noem wrote in a social media post thanking President Trump.
The claim, according to the Department of Homeland Security, is based on a report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which describes itself as "pro-immigration restriction."
CIS included several "caveats" about its estimate, stating that the number is based on the willingness to respond to the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and noted that the survey "does not specifically identify illegal immigrants."
"With recent enhanced enforcement efforts, it is possible that immigrants have become more reluctant to respond to the CPS," the report stated.
"If so, then our survey-based estimates of illegal immigrants may exaggerate the actual decline in their numbers. Furthermore, our survey-based estimates of legal immigrants, which rely on administrative data through July 2025, are still incomplete, which increases uncertainty about the illegal immigrant estimate. All of this should be considered when interpreting the numbers presented here."
Estimates of the number of people living illegally in the U.S. typically hover around 13 million.
The CPS does not ask participants about their immigration status—only about their place of birth and whether they are citizens.
However, Julia Gelatt from the Migration Policy Institute said that immigrants may indeed be more hesitant to respond to surveys since the Trump administration allowed for information sharing between agencies.
"We know the government is sharing Medicaid, food stamp, and other data with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), so answering a government survey could be particularly risky at this time for those without secure legal status," she said, while also cautioning that the survey is based on a small sample.
"So, if immigrants are responding to the survey at lower rates, it would look as if the immigrant population is decreasing even if the actual number of people remains—they are just afraid to talk to people associated with the government."
The 1.6 million figure from CIS would also be a sharp increase from previous numbers released by the Department of Homeland Security, which has emphasized both deportations and voluntary departures.
The Trump administration said in April that it had deported 135,000 people, but this number was also questioned, with the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) calling it a "major exaggeration" and stating the actual number of deportations at the time was around 72,000.
TRAC also reported that immigration judges this year have ordered deportations for over 360,000 people, though it is unclear when these orders will be carried out.
The Trump administration has also initiated new programs encouraging immigrants to leave the U.S., offering a $1,000 grant to those who register to depart through the CBP Home App, an enhanced version of the app started under President Biden that allowed immigrants to request asylum appointments.
In addition to efforts to deport immigrants without legal status, the Trump administration has also taken several steps to end programs for those who are in the U.S. legally. The Department of Homeland Security has pushed to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) programs that prevent the deportation of people from countries experiencing natural disasters or civil unrest. They also ended parole status for those who were allowed to enter legally under Biden.
ICE lawyers have also moved to dismiss cases in immigration court for those seeking legal status, a move that paves the way for them to be placed in expedited removal proceedings.
U.S. Producer Prices Surged in July as Trump's Tariffs Drive Up Costs
Associated Press – Wholesale inflation in the U.S. rose unexpectedly sharply in July 2025, indicating that President Donald Trump's comprehensive import tariffs are pushing up costs and that consumer prices are likely to rise in the near future.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday, August 14, that the producer price index (PPI)—which measures inflation before it reaches consumers—rose by 0.9% last month compared to June, the largest jump in more than three years. Compared to the same period last year, wholesale prices increased by 3.3%.
This figure was much higher than economists had forecast.
Prices rose faster for producers than for consumers last month, suggesting that U.S. importers may currently be "shouldering" the costs from Trump's tariffs rather than passing them on to customers.
However, this may not last long.
"It's only a matter of time before producers pass higher tariff-related costs on to inflation-weary consumers," wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at fwdbonds, a financial market research firm.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core producer price index rose 0.9% from June, the largest month-over-month increase since March 2022. Compared to a year ago, core wholesale prices rose 3.7% after a 2.6% year-over-year increase in June.
Wholesale food prices rose 1.4% from June, led by a 38.9% increase in vegetable prices. Prices for home electronic equipment increased 5% from June. Both are heavily imported items in the U.S.
However, some aspects of Thursday's producer price report were puzzling, including a large increase in profit margins at retailers and wholesalers. Economist Stephen Brown at Capital Economics noted this increase was "counterintuitive, to say the least, considering evidence that businesses are absorbing most of the tariff increases in their margins."
Trump's tariffs have created much uncertainty about the world's largest economy, which could explain some seemingly contradictory trends. Trump has negotiated trade agreements with several major U.S. partners, including the European Union and Japan. However, the details of the deals have not been released, leaving businesses uncertain about the final tariff levels and therefore unsure whether to adjust their prices.
The impact of the tariffs has also been delayed because many importers stockpiled goods before the tariffs took effect. However, these inventories are gradually being depleted.
Furthermore, U.S. courts are reviewing challenges to Trump's broadest tariffs and could potentially overturn them.
The wholesale inflation report was released two days after the Labor Department announced that consumer prices rose 2.7% last month compared to July 2024, the same as the previous month and up from a post-pandemic low of 2.3% in April. Core consumer prices rose 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June. Both figures are higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
The new consumer price data showed that slower rent increases and cheaper gasoline prices partially offset the impact of Trump's tariffs. Many businesses may also still be absorbing most of the costs instead of raising prices for customers.
Both the producer and consumer inflation indexes are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the U.S. Department of Labor, an agency that has come under Trump's scrutiny.
After the BLS released a disappointing jobs report for July, Trump fired the BLS director, baselessly accusing the agency of manipulating data for political reasons. Trump then nominated a partisan replacement, raising concerns about political interference in the economic data that investors, policymakers, businesses, and the Fed rely on for decision-making.
Thursday's report is likely to complicate the Fed's decisions. After the bleak July jobs report—which also showed much weaker hiring than initially reported for May and June—the Fed was widely expected to cut interest rates at its meeting next month to stimulate hiring.
The Fed has displeased Trump for not yet cutting rates. Under the leadership of Chairman Jerome Powell, the bank has delayed rate cuts to better understand the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. "This report is a strong confirmation of the Fed's wait-and-see stance on policy changes," wrote Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in a commentary on Thursday. "This will lead to a lowering of market expectations for a rate cut in September."
Wholesale prices can provide an early look at the direction of consumer inflation. Economists also monitor this index because some of its components, especially healthcare and financial services, are included in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The PCE inflation data for July will be released on August 29.
Hanh Dương.
