NEW DELHI/BEIJING – In what is being hailed as a landmark diplomatic event, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit China at the end of August, his first trip to the neighbouring country in over seven years. The visit is widely seen as the most significant step yet in resetting a relationship between the two Asian giants that had plummeted to its lowest point in decades following military clashes on their Himalayan border.
Mr. Modi is expected to travel to the Chinese city of Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Heads of State summit from August 31 to September 1. While the visit is for a multilateral forum, all eyes will be on a potential bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines. Such a meeting would be pivotal in charting the future course of Sino-Indian ties.
The visit marks a remarkable turnaround from the deep freeze that characterized relations after the deadly Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, where soldiers from both nations were killed in hand-to-hand combat. That incident led to a massive military buildup along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a suspension of most high-level diplomatic contact, and a sharp downturn in trade and people-to-people exchanges.
The path to rapprochement began cautiously but gained momentum following a crucial meeting between Modi and Xi at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024. That discussion is understood to have set the framework for disengagement and de-escalation along the border, paving the way for a series of high-level talks between foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisors over the past year.
Key Agenda: From De-escalation to Dialogue
The upcoming dialogue between the two leaders is expected to be comprehensive, moving beyond immediate crisis management to the broader goal of normalizing relations. The key items on the agenda are anticipated to include:
Border Peace and Tranquility: The primary focus will be on solidifying the disengagement process along the LAC and discussing further de-escalation to prevent future flare-ups. Rebuilding trust between the two militaries is considered essential.
Resumption of Economic and People-to-People Ties: Discussions are expected to cover the full resumption of direct flights, which have been suspended since 2020, and the reopening of border trade points. Facilitating people-to-people exchanges, including the symbolic resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage for Indian citizens, is also a key indicator of a return to normalcy.
Trade Imbalance: While trade continues, India is likely to raise its long-standing concerns about its significant trade deficit with China and seek greater market access for its goods and services.
Regional and Global Issues: The SCO summit itself provides a platform to discuss shared interests in regional security, counter-terrorism, and the evolving geopolitical landscape in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
The timing of the visit is also critical, coming at a moment of geopolitical flux. For both New Delhi and Beijing, demonstrating a stable and pragmatic relationship can serve as a powerful counter-narrative to external pressures and regional instability. For India, it is a clear assertion of its foreign policy of "strategic autonomy"—engaging with all major powers based on its own national interests.
Analysts suggest that while the deep-seated mistrust and strategic competition will not disappear overnight, this visit represents a mutual recognition that sustained dialogue is imperative. The success of the visit will be measured not just in joint statements, but in tangible progress on the ground and the establishment of a durable mechanism to manage their differences, ensuring that the two powers can coexist and contribute to, rather than detract from, Asian stability and prosperity.
